William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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NIGERIAN GIRLS LATEST – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:  AFP, the French news agency, has obtained a video, presumably of the Nigerian girls kidnapped by an Islamist terror group.  From Reuters: 

The leader of the Nigerian Islamist rebel group Boko Haram has said he will release more than 200 schoolgirls abducted by his fighters last month in exchange for prisoners, according to a video seen by Agence France-Presse on Monday.

Around 100 girls wearing full veils and praying are shown in an undisclosed location in the 17-minute video in which Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau speaks, according to the French news agency.

Militants fighting for an Islamist state stormed a secondary school in the northeastern village of Chibok on April 14 and seized 276 girls who were taking exams. Some managed to escape but around 200 remain missing.

The group has killed thousands since 2009 and destabilized parts of northeast Nigeria, the country with Africa’s largest population and biggest economy.

COMMENT:  We have to be awfully careful here.  First, the video has to be authenticated.  If it is authentic, the decision must be made as to whether the Nigerian government "negotiates with terrorists."  Almost everyone does, despite denials.

I'm guessing that Nigeria would be willing to release some prisoners in exchange for the girls.  However, I think it's highly unlikely that Boko Haram will release all the girls.  That would be suicide.  It would leave the group completely vulnerable to attack, since no released girls would be killed in the attack.  I'd imagine they'd keep, say, 50 girls as hostages and protection against military action.

This isn't easy.  Clearly, the group should have been taken more seriously and wiped out years ago. 

May 12,  2014